5-29-18 The 2018 Midterms
Apr 9, 2018
The 2018 Midterm Election Looks Very Grim for Republicans
In a normal election year where there is no presidential race, April would be way too early to be talking about voting that doesn’t take place until November. Since we now live in a time of continuous campaigning, I’m desperately behind in commenting about an election that is quickly becoming a done deal.
I’ve been closely watching elections since the Carter administration, and I’ve never seen one that looked so bad for the Republicans. I’ve also never seen an election where the Democrats were so fixated on taking control of Congress.
Some Democratic candidates have already raised incredible amounts of money. El Paso Rep. Beto O’Rourke, the Democrat hoping to defeat Sen. Ted Cruz in November, raised a record-setting $6.7 million in the first quarter of 2018, according to his campaign. Texas has been such a solid red state that, in the past, any Democratic challenger would be lucky to raise a few thousand dollars.
A wave of retirements by prominent Republicans in Congress also suggests good fortune for Democrats, making it harder for Republicans to hold some competitive seats. A much bigger factor is the 80% historical average of the sitting President’s party losing 20-30 seats in the midterm election.
The Democrats only need a swing of 24 seats for them to gain control of the House. The current forecast calls for the Republicans to lose between 40 and 50 seats. I know some of these polls are the same ones that had Hillary Clinton 15 points ahead in the 2016 race. Because House races are all a direct vote, they tend to defy the oddities of one candidate getting three million more votes and still losing the election: 65.8 Clinton vs. 62.9 Trump.
There has been a series of massive political changes in the key political state that could play a major role in a democratic win. Here is a list of them:
Florida – Hurricane Maria had such a devastating impact on the Island of Puerto Rico that a large portion of the Island’s residents has relocated to the state of Florida. Since 70% of Puerto Ricans vote for the Democratic Party, this change in demographics could doom several Republican seats.
Pennsylvania – The state’s Supreme Court has redrawn the map of the state’s congressional districts, overturning a Republican gerrymander that’s been used in the past three congressional elections. The new map more closely reflects the partisan composition of the state, all but ensuring that Democrats will pick up seats
Wisconsin – Governor Scott Walker warned that his state could see a wave of Democratic victories in the 2018 midterm elections. Walker’s comments came after liberal Judge Rebecca Dallet overcame conservative Judge Michael Screnock in the race for a Wisconsin Supreme Court seat.
California – The Golden state is in open revolt to the authority of the federal government. Leftist radicals are actively seeking to flood the state with illegal immigrants that will give their support to the Democratic Party.
Texas – People who are sick of all the rules and taxes in California and other Western states are moving to Texas in large numbers. They are not in Texas to support policies that have made Texas prosperous. They have brought with them the same political beliefs that will turn Texas into another California.
I think the only chance that Republicans have at retaining the House is voters rejecting the possibility of putting Nancy Pelosi back in as the Speaker of the House. The press has been very active in hiding her medical problems, but I think there is clear evidence that she is suffering from an advanced form of dementia. I don’t know why they don’t replace her as minority leader. My guess is that insanity is so pervasive in the Democratic Party, it’s longer possible for them to comprehend that Nancy is losing her marbles.
The outcome of this election will clearly be the will of God. It would be an amazing accomplishment for the Republicans to retain both houses of Congress, despite this massive effort on the part of Democrats. I know this endless stream of rage is coming from the pit of hell, and it’s clear that the devil is not going to stop until he achieves victory. It is my hope that the rapture comes as an October surprise. Right before the November election, we could disappear and join the Lord in laughing the left to derision.
“Why do the heathen rage, and the people imagine a vain thing? The kings of the earth set themselves, and the rulers take counsel together, against the Lord, and against his anointed, saying, Let us break their bands asunder, and cast away their cords from us. He that sitteth in the heavens shall laugh: the Lord shall have them in derision” (Psalm 2:1-4).
–Todd
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