JUNE REPORT-ISRAEL UPDATE

ISRAELUPDATE] JUNE REPORT - David Dolan - Jerusalem

Greetings to all!

The situation continues to intensify in Israel today following Sunday's audacious Palestinian attack on an Israeli army outpost near the Gaza Strip. Substantial Israeli military forces are being massed along the northern Gaza Strip border in preparation for what could be the largest military operation in over four years. Meanwhile Israeli forces contiue to search for missing Israeli soldier Gilad. The brutal murder by Palestinain terrorists of a captured young Israeli civilian settler has only added to the explosive tension in the region. Hamas leaders in Damascus continue to thwart the handover of the captured soldier, vowing instead to use him to secure the release of Palestinian prisoners in Israeli jails. Israeli leaders have made clear they will not give in to that demand, even as they hint that the Syrian capital itself could be targeted if Hamas leaders there fail to allow his release. This comes after Israel arrested eight PA cabinet ministers Wednesday night, along with a number of parliament members--forecasting the possible end of the Palestinian Authority. Since the orders to Hamas are believed to be coming via Damascus from Iran, the potential for another major Middle East war is growing every day.

My monthly new review and analysis report below was written earlier this week. Technical difficulties prevented it being sent out to you until now.

It is a already bit outdated by the dramatic events of the past few days, but provides important background information for understanding how we have come to this current crisis situation.

HAMAS RETURNS TO THE WARPATH

The powerful Palestinian Hamas movement effectively declared war on Israel in June by announcing the end of a sixteen16 month halt in violent Hamas attacks against the Jewish citizens of Israel. state. The ominous declaration by the radical Islamic group, which took control of the Palestinian Authority government in March after a stunning parliamentary victory in January, came as Israeli military forces responded to stepped up Palestinian rocket attacks upon Israeli soil. During one such IDF operation in the northern Gaza Strip, a Palestinian family picnicking on a Gaza beach was killed by what PA officials charged was an Israeli artillery shell. However Israeli leaders later denied that the deaths were their responsibility, saying tests on shrapnel from the incident showed conclusively that it was either a Palestinian landmine or rocket that had killed the victims, not Israeli ordinance.

Hamas made good on its declaration of war several weeks later when eight highly trained Palestinian militiamen—including at least two Hamas operatives—brazenly attacked an Israeli army outpost on June 25th. The terrorists emerged just before dawn from a long tunnel that had been secretly dug in recent weeks under the southern Gaza border with Israel, lobbing hand grenades and firing automatic weapons at the shocked Israeli soldiers. Two of the ambushed servicemen were quickly killed in the assault, and several others wounded, one seriously. Adding to the gravity of the attack, one solider holding duo French-Israeli citizenship was captured alive by the Palestinians. Three of the Palestinian attackers were also killed during the ambush. A fierce battle followed for many hours, featuring the first IDF military ground incursion into the Gaza Strip since Israeli soldiers and civilians were pulled out of the area nearly one year ago.

The Israeli government blamed the Hamas-run Palestinian Authority for the assault, with all that implies. They warned that a major military operation would be launched if the kidnapped soldier is not immediately released. As of this writing, a massive buildup of troops and equipment continues along Israel's border with the Gaza Strip, with Israeli officials warning their patience was wearing thin. Many politicians and security analysts said the audacious Palestinian ambush, and continuing rocket attacks upon Israeli cities, might make it necessary for Israel to at least temporarily reoccupy some of the abandoned coastal zone. Analysts said such talk is a great embarrassment for Prime Minister Ehud Olmert, who had been the loudest Likud party proponent of the controversial Gaza withdrawal, which many politicians and security analysts say has now proved to be an utter failure.

While action was escalating between Palestinian and Israeli forces, rival Palestinian factions continued to exchange fireclash on Gaza streets. This came as PA security forces and medical workers held violent demonstrations in the Gaza Strip and Ramallah to demand payment of long overdue salaries.

While demandingpleading for moreadditional foreign aid to help rectify the severe financial crisis triggeredbrought on by the Hamas electoral triumphvictory, Palestinian politicians were engaged all month in ongoing attempts to prevent a full-scale civil war inside PA zones of control.

Meanwhile just south of Ramallah, in Jerusalem, Israeli officials and legislators in Jerusalem continued to debate the merits of PM new Prime Minister Ehud Olmert's "convergence" withdrawal plan from wide portions of Judea and Samaria, with some saying the chances it would actually be implemented in the end were significantly reduced by the hostile Hamas declaration. This came as fresh opinion polls revealed that a solid majority of Israelis oppose the plan.

SUFFERING SDEROT

As has been the case for several years now, June's Palestinian rocket assaults especially targeted the beleaguered Israeli town of Sderot, located close to the PA-ruled Gaza Strip. However the scale of such attacks during the month was unprecedented, with Palestinian Kassam rockets landing nearly every day somewhere in the town. One rocket actually landed close to the home of Israeli Defense Minister Amir Peretz, who once served as mayor of the mainly Moroccan Jewish town. Two Sderot apartment buildings were damaged during the first week of June alone, while another rocket landed later in the month landed just outside of a school full of children.

With opposition Israeli politicians increasingly crying foul—not to mention members of the mainly Moroccan JewishOrthodox Shas party that is an integral part of the ruling coalition—the ongoing attacks prompted the Olmert government to order stepped up military countermeasures. Despite that action, rocket attacks continued were launched almost dailyapace, throughout the month, prompting Israeli officials to warn that the continuing strikesassaults could spark a major military operation inside of the northern Gaza Strip, from where most of the Kassams were being launched. .

Public Security Minister Avi Dichter went even further, saying the army may need to permanently reoccupy portions of the northern Gaza Strip if the rocket barrage continues. "Just as the army responded harshly to Katyusha rockets in the north" (i.e. Russian-made rockets fired into the Galilee region by the PLO, which sparked the 1982 Israeli invasion of Lebanon), "so it should wield a strong hand against Kassams in the south," he said. However the suggestion was rejected by senior government leaders who maintained that while such action would probably halt most rocket assaults, it would also bring down the wrath of the world upon Israel.

Meanwhile unnamed "senior IDF officials" were quoted by the Associated Press as giving advance details of Israel's five year military plan, due to be publicly released in July. The plan reportedly anticipates that Palestinian violence will not be reduced by Olmert's planned evacuation of Israeli soldiers and civilians from most of Samaria and Judea. In fact, such violence is expected to increase after a period of relative calm, said the quoted sources (the sources were speaking before Hamas declared an end to its ceasefire and then participated in the June 25th tunnel attack, indicating that the period of "relative calm" may already be behind us). The IDF Intelligence report however considers the Palestinian threat as second to the Iranian nuclear program, which it reportedly predicts will have to be dealt with in the coming five years.

COMMANDOS IN ACTION

One Palestinian rocket blitzarrage upon Sderot on the morning of June 5th destroyed a bedroom that had been occupied only minutes before by a 17 year old Israeli teenage boy. Psalms were recited in area synagogues later in the day to mark what many rabbis called a "miraculous escape from death." But a female resident of the apartment building was not so fortunate, sustainingffering serious injuries. Another Israeli was also hospitalized following the attack, suffering from shock.

The rocket assault was claimed by the Palestinian Islamic Jihad group backed by Iran and Syria. It followed an unusual Israeli military ground operation in the Gaza Strip the night before that left four Islamic Jihad membersterrorists dead—two of them senior members commandersof the Palestinian "Popular Resistance Committee," which is comprised of Hamas and several dissident PLO factions. —dead inside the Gaza Strip. An army statement said the men were ambushed after they were spotted on their way to launch Kassam rockets at Israeli targets. TMilitary analysts said the Israeli operation was —carried out by specially trained commando forces that were airdropped into the Gaza Strip—signaled that the Olmert government may now be ready to return troops there if necessary nearly one year after the previous Sharon government evacuated all Israeli soldiers and Jewish civilian residents from the contested coastal zone. .

Despite the Islamic Jihad claim of responsibility, for the June 5th rocket assault, Israeli army experts announced later in the week that a close examination of shrapnel embedded in the heavily damaged apartment building showed that the exploded rockets were of a more advanced type than produced by the small militant group. In fact, they were said to be Hamas-made Kassams which have a significantly longer range and carry a larger explosive payload.

The revelationis prompted Israeli defense officials to warn that they would resume military assaults upon Hamas commanders and activists if Hamas the group did not immediately halt such rocket firings. Indeed, several Hamas figures were killed later in the month after Hamas declared its intention to return to the terrorist warpath. Targeted killings of Hamas members were suspended after the group declared in February 2004 that it would observe a PLO-mandated "time out" ceasefire in its jihad war against Israel. Before that, Hamas terrorist atrocities had left nearly 500 Israelis dead and thousands wounded in a series of attacks that began in late 2000.

BOTHCED OPERATIONS BRING UN REBUKE

As the Palestinian rocket barrage against Sderot escalated, Aadditional Israeli targeted air strikes were launched later in the month. , mostly against members of Islamic Jihad group. But aAn Israeli helicopter missile strike was also aimed on June 20th 20th at members of the PLO-linked Al Aksa Martyr's Brigades, said to be on their way to carry out a Kassamrocket attack upon Israeli territory. Officials said the PLO-linked group—which had also formally joined Hamas in endorsing the 2004 "time out" ceasefire—had p had stepped up its own anti-Israel activities after Hamas announced its intention to resume terrorist assaults.

The Al Aksa terroristsmembers managed to escape from their car just seconds before the Israeliair force missile exploded next to it. However ne, but several nearby Palestinians were sadly killed and injured, including two three children and a teenage boy. The army subsequently apologized for the unintended non-combatant casualties, while noting that Palestinian Kassam rockets are mostly deliberately aimed at Jewish civilians.

The next night, another Israeli missile also missed its intended target—four men from Khan Yunis on their way to launch more Kassam rockets into Israel. Refreshing Palestinian anger over the beach blast that left seven members of a family dead in early June, the missile overshot the intended vehicle target and hit a nearby home instead where a family was just sitting down to dinner. The explosion killed a pregnant mother and her brother and wounded all other family members, most of them children.

This brought an immediate call from the office of United Nations chief Kofi Annan for Israel to halt what was termed "targeted assassinations" forthwith.

Israeli officials were not impressed by the one-sided call, which failed to acknowledge that recent helicopter missile strikes have not mainly been "targeted killings" of wanted terrorist leaders, but actual interceptions meant to thwart imminent rocket firings at Israeli civilian centers. "We are condemned for unintended, if unfortunate consequences of our defensive measures, while the Palestinian terrorists, who are bringing our missile strikes upon them by constantly and deliberately targeting our civilians from territory we evacuated last year, are not rebuked for that fact," said a Foreign Ministry spokesman. Meanwhile Knesset opposition leader Binyamin Netanyahu urged the government to order military strikes on "Palestinian infrastructure targets" to drive home the fact that Israel will not tolerate continuing rocket attacks upon civilian population centers.

Israel's Shin Bet security chief Yuval Diskin told the Knesset in early June that massive amounts of weapons and explosive material had been successfully smuggled into the Gaza Strip since Israel quit the area last August. If fact, he said the material exceeded the total amount smuggled in over the previous 38 years of Israeli control. An incredible 11 tons of TNT had entered the area, he revealed, along with almost 20,000 illegal rifles and 10 shoulder fired rocket launchers that can potentially take down Israeli aircraft.

Israeli intelligence sources revealed that Hamas weapons experts have been trying to add toxic chemicals to their bombs in an attempt to make their suicide and rocket attacks ever more deadly. However the sources said Hamas bomb factories have not yet succeeded in stabilizing such explosive devices. Teams working on the project are said to include several top Palestinian Muslim scientists. Israeli officials say Hamas is working hard to upgrade all of its weapons, especially suicide belts and Kassam rockets.

PALESTINIAN REFERENDUM

Negotiations continued all month between overall PA leader Mahmoud Abbas and members of the Hamas-dominated PA cabinet to forestall a civil war.

Despite this, armed clashes took place several times during the month in the tense Gaza Strip, where a new 3,000 member armed Hamas "security force" had been set up to patrol areas supposedly under the control of PA Fatah-dominated paramilitary forces. Renewed Hamas threats to assassinate Abbas prompted his office to announce he would stay away from the Gaza Strip for the time being. But after he was heavily criticized for what many said was an effective surrender of the area to anti-PLO Islamic forces even before a full fledged battle gets underway, Abbas made his way to Gaza City during the last week of June.

Abbas employed several measures during the month in his efforts to prevent an all out civil war. In particular, he pressed ahead with his "National Reconciliation" referendum proposal that he first suggested as internal armed clashes escalated in May. The proposal, heavily resisted by Hamas politicians, is based on the so-called "prisoners document" drafted in late May and early June by several leading Palestinian terrorists serving time in Israeli jails. Among the crafters of the "unity" document was the populist leader of the Fatah Tanzim terror group, Marwan Barghouti, considered a possible candidate to replace Abbas as PA leader despite his incarceration in an Israeli jail. Other contributors were senior Hamas cleric Abdel Al-Natsche and Sheik Bassam Al-Sadi, who led the Islamic Jihad branch in the town of Jenin before his arrest. Two representatives of the PLO Popular Front and Democratic Front splinter groups also participated in drafting the referendum document.

Announcing that the vote would take place in late July, Abbas said the referendum was designed to end the growing rivalry between mainly secular Palestinian factions and Muslim militant groups, which left nearly 20 Palestinians dead in the first half of June. Voters would be asked to endorse the internationally-backed "land for peace" process that began with the signing of the first Oslo peace accord in 1993, and to support the PLO plan to establish a Palestinian state in land encompassing all of the Gaza Strip and Jordan's former West Bank, including the eastern half of Jerusalem.

The prisoner's document also calls for millions of Palestinian refugees and their offspring to be allowed back into ancestral family homes inside of Israel's pre-1967 borders—which Israeli parties across the political spectrum uniformly reject as a thinly veiled attempt to destroy Israel from within. Abbas again indicated he would resign and call for new parliamentary elections if a majority of Palestinian voters reject the referendum—which would essentially mean they endorse a full reversion to the radical Muslim path of ongoing "jihad" warfare until Israel is wiped off the world map.

Hamas negotiators attempted during the month to convince Abbas to call off his plebiscite, or at the very least to reword the proposal to leave open the possibility of a future Palestinian armed attempt to annihilate the detested Jewish state. While Abbas stood firm on the main modalities of his proposed referendum, he did give ground to his Muslim rivals in several other important areas. His biggest concession was to endorse an Egyptian mediated plan to allow Hamas militiamen in the Gaza Strip to be folded into official PA security forces under his overall control (Israeli analysts expressed skepticism that the plan will actually be carried out, or would last very long if implemented).

DEATH AND LIFE

Israeli security officials were well pleased when Iraqi government leaders confirmed on June 8th that Al Qaida branch leader Abu Musab Al-Zarqawi was killed by American air-launched missiles north of Baghdad. While his nationality was always listed as Jordanian, Israeli leaders realized the terrorist mastermind considered himself a Palestinian since his family had come to Jordan from their hometown of Nablus, north of Jerusalem. Thus, Zarqawi's April pronouncement that his "eyes were on Al Quds" (the Islamic name for Jerusalem) was taken very seriously by security officials, especially since Al Qaida terror cells had recently been uncovered in Samaria. On top of that, Zarqawi had taken "credit' for a rocket attack from Lebanon into northern Israel last month, indicating Al Qaida terror cells had also been established in Palestinian refugee camps located there.

Israeli security officials warned however that Zarqawi's death will not end all Al Qaida terror threats against Israeli targets, especially since it obviously had not halted ongoing insurgent violence in Iraq. They are especially concerned over indications that Palestinian Al Qaida cells may have successfully smuggled US-made Stinger anti-aircraft missiles into PA zones of control. One such Al Qaida shoulder-fired missile was fired at an Israeli commercial jet several years ago in Kenya, but missed its target due to elaborate anti-missile systems that are now standard equipment on all Israeli aircraft.

Despite June's mushrooming violence between Israeli and Palestinian forces, overseas tourists continued to pour into the country in numbers not seen for over half a decade. Officials were concerned however that reports of rising Palestinian-Israeli clashes might spark some group and individual cancellations during the second half of the year. They pointed out that the violence has been mostly confined to the Gaza Strip and areas right around it, which are normally not on most tour itineraries to begin with. "And many peoples will come and say, 'Come let us go up to he mountain of the Lord, to the house of the God of Jacob, that He may teach us concerning His ways and that we may walk in His paths.' For the law will go forth from Zion, and the word of the Lord from Jerusalem." (Isaiah 3:3).
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