AVIAN FLU UPDATE

AVIAN FLU UPDATE -

The Avian flu continues to be a topic of public interest and debate. US government officials have instructed communities, schools, businesses, and individuals on how to prepare for a possible outbreak. Scientists say the virus poses a serious threat, yet some critics have accused the administration of fear mongering. Adding fuel to the fire, this week ABC will air a made-for-TV movie titled "Fatal Contact: Bird Flu in America." The movie follows an outbreak of the H5N1 avian flu virus from its origins in a Hong Kong market through its mutation into a pandemic virus that becomes easily transmittable from human to human and spreads rapidly around the world. [Please Note: The Department of Health and Human Services has prepared a viewer's guide to provide factual information for viewers of the movie, see links below.]

In the news, Robert G. Webster, a virologist at the St. Jude Children's Research Hospital in Memphis is quoted as saying "I've worked with flu all my life, and this is the worst influenza virus that I have ever seen." Webster predicted it would take at least 10 more mutations before the H5N1 virus could potentially begin spreading from human to human, but said there's no way to know when - or if - that will ever happen.

Centers for Disease Control and World Health Organization officials believe that the avian influenza, also known as the bird flu, could become a global epidemic if a new strain of the virus emerges that can jump readily from human to human. If there is an outbreak health officials estimate that it would spread rapidly and could infect nearly one-third of the world's population. It could kill anywhere from 2 million to 50 million people. The disease has infected bird populations in most of Asia, Europe, the Middle East and parts of Africa. Experts suspect it is only a matter of time before migratory birds bring the disease to the United States.

Avian flu will likely be the cause of the next pandemic, which experts say will probably happen in the near future. There have been four pandemics during the last century, which emerge, on average, every 30 years. Perhaps the most deadly pandemic in human history was the 1918 Spanish flu which emerged just after the end of World War I. It killed between 20 and 50 million people, more than the Black Plague or AIDS. When scientists reconstructed the 1918 virus they discovered that, unlike the last flu pandemic which hit Hong Kong in 1968, the 1918 flu virus was a bird flu that jumped directly to humans. This discovery has lead many to believe that the next pandemic will be similar to that of the deadly 1918 outbreak.

With the advent of antibiotics 50 years ago, scientists predicted the end of death and suffering from infectious diseases. During the past 25 years, however, we have witnessed the reemergence and geographical spread of well-known diseases, including tuberculosis, malaria, and cholera, often in more virulent and drug-resistant forms. Scientists have also identified more than 30 previously unknown diseases, like HIV and Ebola, for which there is no known cure.

According to the National Institute of Health infectious diseases remain the leading cause of death worldwide, and the third leading cause of death in the United States. Diseases thought to be obsolete have once again become a global threat, and in recent years new pathogens have emerged, some of which carry antibiotic-resistant genes or mutations enabling them to move across different species.

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